The myriad football forums and message boards on the internet do not make pleasant reading for Arsenal fans. With the exception of a few doughty souls, those with the will to pass comment speak in unison: Arsenal are a team on the slide.
Our best days are behind us, we are told. Our team is too young. Our new stadium has crippled us financially making us unable to compete in the transfer market.
We are, apparently, no longer a top team. We will soon be relegated to a meagre existence of UEFA Cup football, unable to gorge on the luxuriant delights served on Europe’s top table. In our place will be everyone’s new favourite second team: Aston Villa.
Villa are loved almost as much as Arsenal are despised. Crudely, this is because Aston Villa, unlike Arsenal, have the celebrated “English core”. You see, you can’t win anything with pampered foreign pansies. Some people want nothing more than to see the stoic English lionhearts put one over the cheese-eating surrender monkeys.
What interests me is whether the doom-mongers and gleeful opposition fans are right? How much of the talk can be put down to sledging tactics, media hyperbole and latent xenophobia, and how much is sound judgement based on good evidence?
Honestly, I think there’s little of substance in all the chatter.
Clearly, Arsenal have had a poor season. Their underachievement is marked against a previous season in which the club flirted with success and is highlighted still further by the strides made my Villa in the current campaign.
Much of this poor form can be attributed to bad luck with injuries. To be without four key attacking outlets – Rosicky, Fabregas, Walcott and Eduardo – for significant lengths of time is something the manager could not legislate for.
This lack of potency is evidenced by a worrying goal drought and partly explains the club’s decision to depart from the established transfer strategy and spend big on the relatively ancient Andrei Arshavin.
In addition to the unforeseen problems, there are problems that Wenger has brought on himself. Even my pet mole could see that last season's progress was founded largely on the superb midfield combination of Fabregas and Flamini… or Fabini… or Flabregas.
Flamini’s tireless running and tackling gave Fabregas the time and space to work his magic. Given the opportunity to get his head up, Fabregas was able to pick out the willing runs of Adebayor and Eduardo time and time again. The supply line was so bountiful that the naturally profligate Adebayor was able to plunder 30 goals.
Wenger clearly did not expect Flamini to leave – I’m sure he would have held on to Diarra otherwise. Yet once it became clear that Flamini was to accept the advances of Milan, Wenger should have made it his number one priority to find a suitable replacement.
If reports are to be believed, Wenger did indeed try to find a successor in the form of either Gokhan Inler or Xabi Alonso. However he made it clear that he would not pay over the odds for his man, assuring us that he had confidence in the players already at the club to rise to the challenge.
Though he would never admit it, that confidence appears to have been misplaced. Perhaps in contrast to the majority, I actually think Diaby and Denilson – the two players most frequently deployed in defensive midfield this season – are both good players. In fact, I’ve seen enough to think they have the potential to be great players.
That said, I don’t think they are very good defensive midfielders. Denilson does not have the physicality to defend and Diaby does not have the inclination. Had Wenger purchased the right kind of player to partner Cesc, the season may have been different.
Wenger would also have done well to purchase a real battering ram of a defender. Like good centre-mid partnerships, a good defensive pairing will compliment each other's talents. One to get to every first ball and one to mop up and bring the ball out of defence. Arsenal have several players who fit into the second mould but none who fit into the first.
Given these problems, why do I think the prognostications of demise are premature?
Well, simply, because the problems Arsenal have are easily remedied. There is clearly a lot of talent, both current and future. All that is needed are a number of choice acquisitions in the positions already mentioned. Given what the team nearly achieved last season, there is no reason to think they cannot do one better once the deficiencies are properly addressed.
The team may be hard pushed to make the Champions League this season given Villa’s relentless form, but Villa’s form must be seen for exactly what it is: form.
Things can change very quickly in football and there’s no reason to think Villa have what it takes to permanently deprive Arsenal of their top four status. Class, as they say, is permanent, and people are quick to dismiss the fact that Arsenal’s success is build on years of experience in the top echelons of the league.
Financially too the club is extremely well managed. The new stadium may have required a tightening of the belt, but the loan repayments are manageable. Just like a homeowner repaying a mortgage, Arsenal still have disposable income. What is more, this is income generated by the club itself and not gifted by a wealthy benefactor.
Unlike like Leeds, the club’s business model is not dependent on Champions League qualification. Although the loss of the Champions League revenue would be harmful, it would not be mortal.
People have suggested the greatest danger would not be loss of income but the loss of prestige and the loss of players that would result in failure to reach Europe’s premier club competition. There is always this possibility, but I’m confident that Arsenal’s players would choose to stay.
Firstly, they would shoulder some of the blame for the club’s failure to qualify and I think professional pride would motivate them to stay and put the record straight.
Secondly, the majority of Arsenal’s players are young enough that a season out of the Champions League would not be a disaster. If the team failed to qualify for successive seasons, the situation would change.
There are recent precedents in the form of Bayern Munich and AC Milan that a single season without Champions League is not fatal. Indeed, Bayern Munich successfully recruited Franck Ribery and Luca Toni without the lure of Champions League football and Milan captured both Flamini and Ronaldinho.
If Arsenal continue to adopt a long-term prudential strategy there is no reason to think they will go the way of Leeds and every reason to think that they will resist the challenge from below and get back to challenging for domestic and European honours.
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